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Table 3 summarizes the accuracy of these predictions based on a variety of characteristics including the year of the election, the party predicted to win, incumbent vs. open seat contests, and the predicted margin of victory. Senate 2022 Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. Theres no question that our orientation this cycle should be around geographic and demographic expansion. Nov. 9, 2022, The feared Democratic collapse along the Rio Grande didnt materialize. 2022 Prediction . Updated daily, Ron Johnson Re-Election Polling and Predictions, Mark Kelly Re-Election Polling and Predictions, 2024 PollsPresidential ElectionSenateGOP PrimaryDem PrimaryBiden Approval Rating Tracker. Even though Democratic presidential candidates won the national popular vote in all 3 presidential elections between 2012 and 2020, Republican presidential candidates carried 93 of the 174 states with Senate contests during these years a success rate of just over 53%. 0 Days to Election. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. But so far, voters are rejecting an effort to deny abortion rights. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Click here to change which version of the model you see. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Contests were only counted once per cycle, so the 2013 Massachusetts and New Jersey special elections were omitted because those same seats were also contested in the 2014 November general election. Nov. 9, 2022, More than 210 Republicans who questioned the 2020 election have won seats in the U.S. House and Senate and in state races for governor, secretary of state and attorney general, according to results as of 12 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. Updated Every Day with the Latest Polling. RCP Gov Map Race Changes. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures. These charts show how our forecasts have changed over the course of the night. Senate Projection. Democratic Gov. We expect the remaining vote that will decide control of Congress will take days, if not weeks, to count. Well also be watching competitive House races in N.C.-13 and Ohio-9. The reason I would even consider a chance for Republicans is similar to Louisiana for Democrats. Maggie Astor The table includes the state, type of Senate race, predicted Democratic margin, and classification into 1 of 6 categories: Uncompetitive Democratic, Potentially Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Democratic, Very Competitive Republican, Potentially Competitive Republican, and Uncompetitive Republican. Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their states presidential leanings. In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early, but Fetterman is running ahead of Biden in five Pennsylvania counties that have reported nearly all of their votes. In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. Continue with Recommended Cookies. Republicans won just over half (17 of 33) of the open seat contests during these years. Based on the accuracy of the predictions for elections between 2012 and 2020, we can have a high degree of confidence in the outcomes of races in which the predicted margin is greater than 10 points but less confidence if the predicted margin is less than 10 points. Because Alaska uses ranked choice voting, we may not know the winner until Nov. 23. 2022 United States Senate election in Illinois Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Nov. 8, 2022, The Georgia Senate race, which could go to a Dec. 6 runoff, could determine which party controls the chamber. , Brad Raffensperger, Republican, is re-elected as Georgias secretary of state. Were tracking the remaining uncalled House races, and the most recently called races, as states continue to count the remaining votes. Polls just closed in 19 states and Washington, D.C. Were getting results from five states where voters are deciding whether to legalize marijuana. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Democrats need to go on offense on these issues. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. The facts are that the country is better off. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Web2022. The Republican argument looks today even more preposterous and ridiculous. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022. Heres the state of the closest races: We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Ignoring the jokes of Trumps August reinstatement, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. For example, in the 2012 Indiana Senate election, the Republican candidate was favored by just over 7 points but the Democratic candidate won by almost 6 points. U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania, 2024 March 8, 2023 U.S. Senate, Washington, 2024 Feb. 21, 2023 U.S. Senate, Montana, 2024 Feb. 9, 2023 U.S. Senate, Arizona, 2024 avg. John Fetterman, a Democrat, and Dr. Mehmet Oz, a Republican. Democrats also won the Governors office, State Senate, and appear poised to take the State Assembly, and voters affirmed abortion rights in the state. , Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, defeated Doug Mastriano, a Trump-backed election denier, in the race for Pennsylvanias governor. But this work can get done during the campaign. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. Lazaro Gamio The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took You deserve to hear our thinking. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? Senate Election Forecast 2022: Can Democrats Keep Control in Midterms? No Electoral College majority, House decides election. However the state already bans abortions, and that is unlikely to change. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. 2022 United States Senate elections But in many of the most consequential statewide races, Democrats enter Election Day still in the hunt thanks to their candidates strong fundraising and polls that show, for now, they are running ahead of President Joe Bidens poor approval ratings. fresh out of the oven. Latest predictions for the House 2022 Elections, updated daily. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these at POLITICO, State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. Senate Midterm Election Results 2022 | CNN Politics In the current 50-50 Senate, only 6 members represent states that voted for the opposing partys presidential candidate in 2020 3 Democrats (Ohios Sherrod Brown, West Virginias Joe Manchin, and Montanas Jon Tester) and 3 Republicans (Maines Susan Collins, Wisconsins Ron Johnson, and Pennsylvanias Pat Toomey). Odds displayed in the graphics may not match numeric odds due to rounding. 2022 Senate Voters in these counties overall continued to support the Democratic candidate for governor, Beto ORourke. The other interesting finding in Table 3 is that the large majority of erroneous predictions, 12 of 16, involved Democratic victories in contests that Republicans were expected to win. Two findings stand out in this table. *. U.S. House Calif. 3 R+3 36% Calif. 9 D+17 Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. Brian Kemp gained more votes compared to Trump in 2020 all across Georgia, beating Stacey Abrams by a more than seven-point margin. See the rest of our predictions. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. The Democrats need to win roughly twice as many of the most competitive districts as Republicans to keep control of the House. Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. that guide every prediction he makes. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Nov. 8, 2022, Gov. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. Copyright The Economist Newspaper Limited 2022. Nov. 8, 2022, In Kentucky, voters will decide whether to approve a constitutional amendment that would effectively ensure the implementation of a near-total abortion ban. Maggie Astor Michael Bennet and Patty Murray, respectively, to fall. Wiley Nickel, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent North Carolinas 13th Congressional District. Last updated on November 17th 2022 at 6:30 am. Senate 2022 Election Forecast Latest Predictions Weve seen the lowest peacetime unemployment rate since World War II, the lowest poverty and uninsured rates in American history. The reason we need to do what youre describing which is to go into places that werent available to us before is that we need this victory to be as big as possible. However, Republicans are also defending seats in Ohio and Wisconsin, in which their predicted victory margin is just over 10 points, indicating that these seats could potentially be in play. But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. When reported data comes in that is not what we expected, our model will update and incorporate this new data. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Most polls have closed in Alaska, but Alaska doesnt release results until after its last polls close at 1 a.m. Eastern. Clickme! It seems as if Democrats arent really confident that Bidens economic agenda is really a selling point going into 2024. In several of these races, the discrepancy between the predicted and actual results was quite large. Its giving Yesli Vega, the Republican candidate, an edge over incumbent Abigail Spanberger, though this could be temporary. 2 References. But because four of those seats are currently held by Democrats and two by Republicans, its fair to describe the GOP as a slim favorite. Lazaro Gamio The Party That Wins the White House in 2024 Could Sweep the House and Senate, The Final Prediction for the House and Senate - and How to Watch Election Day Like a Professional. Mail voting in 2020 contributed to longer wait times for results. Source: Data compiled by author. Representative Sean Patrick Maloney has conceded defeat to Mike Lawler, a first-term Republican state assemblyman. . Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. Albert Sun Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Alicia Parlapiano , Abigail Spanberger, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Virginias Seventh Congressional District. Read more In two states, shifts in state power could lead to new restrictions. I cant tell you how fired up the Democratic grass roots is right now. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. Eight counties that voted Yes on the proposal also voted for the Republican candidate for governor, Tudor Dixon. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. This discrepancy reflects the small state bias of the Senate, which results in an overrepresentation of Republican-leaning states. Some of our partners may process your data as a part of their legitimate business interest without asking for consent. This legislative session has cemented him as an extremist. One big obstacle to that coalition growth project is that Florida Gov. GOP Gov. (Disclosure: hes a friend.) The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022 | CNN Politics John Fetterman defeated the celebrity TV host Dr. Mehmet Oz, flipping Pennsylvanias Senate seat to the Democrats. In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson jumped out to a lead earlier this fall, but the final polls suggest that Democrat Mandela Barnes remains in contention. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. Speaking of DeSantiss rightward lurch, Bidens reelection video cites GOP book bans and attacks on LGBTQ rights as threats to American freedom and equality. Your guide to the midterm results, from Times reporters, Democrats held onto or gained trifectas in a number of states and fended off Republican supermajorities in others. Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Gretchen Whitmer's poll numbers have been more durable than other Democrats'. Welcome to our. Senate Election Forecast 2022: Ratings, Predictions & Key I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Nov. 9, 2022, J.D. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. For the final pre-election results projection, click here. Particularly in the 2 decisive Georgia Senate runoffs held in early January 2021, Donald Trumps visibility and highly publicized claims of widespread voting fraud involving absentee ballots may have served to motivate Democratic voters while suppressing turnout among some Republican voters concerned that their votes would not be accurately counted. Web1 Predictions. Im Fivey Fox! Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. It was really a late-covid manifestation, and as covid has receded in peoples lives, the conditions that created that conversation have evaporated. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. The outcomes of the 6-8 contests that will most likely determine control of the U.S. Senate in the next Congress will depend to a large extent on the individual candidates and their campaigns. Lazaro Gamio I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim is facing a self-funding GOP opponent and getting some outside help in the closing week of the campaign. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Nov. 10, 2022, Support for the abortion proposal was stronger than support for reelected Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, in 76 of the states 83 counties. Nov. 8, 2022, The shift to the right has been dramatic among counties in Florida reporting nearly all their votes. Which gives us far more running room to go contest it. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse. Finally, there is a clear midterm effect on Senate elections, with candidates from the party occupying the White House experiencing an average penalty of 5.4 points of margin. One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. These differences in results reflected differences in the partisan makeup of the 3 classes of Senate seats as well as differences in the national political environment at the time of each election. Nov. 8, 2022, Because of the order in which different types of ballots are counted, early returns can be misleading. We got to 55 percent in Michigan. Mourdock gained national notoriety for his comment that when a woman becomes pregnant as a result of rape, it is something that God intended, and went on to lose the general election to a moderate Democrat, Joe Donnelly. GOP Rep. Mark Amodei looks safe for reelection after surviving his primary. He's happy to chat about weather forecasting too. The full forecaster analysis can be found here (subscription required). GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Janet Mills of Maine. The latest Last updated Nov. 8, 2022 Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. Over the past decade, however, we have seen that Republicans have blown several opportunities to pick up Democratic seats by nominating candidates who were either ideologically extreme or weighed down by personal controversies. The Associated Press has not called New Yorks race for governor but Gov. Seth Magaziner, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Rhode Islands Second Congressional District. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is still a heavy favorite, but his party appears set to lose ground in California. Its essential to loosening the dark grip of MAGA over the Republican Party. The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by Our model predicted that the Republican nominee would win the race by about 16 points, but Moore ended up losing to Jones by 1.6 points. Democrat Katie Hobbs vs. Republican Kari Lake is one of the marquee races of the 2022 midterms. Maggie Astor 2024 Senate races. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who is endorsed by Donald Trump, is competing with Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. 2022 Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. Theres an enormous amount to work with here. With neither party holding a clear advantage, control of the Senate will likely come down to a half dozen or so competitive contests in which the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could be crucial. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. Nate Cohn Now, with President Biden announcing his reelection bid, Rosenberg is similarly arguing that despite Bidens age and anemic approval ratings, he is in a strong position to win in 2024 and possibly win big. Alicia Parlapiano Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Were tracking the latest polling for the 2024 Primary - both if Joe Biden decides to run for a second term, and if he opts out. The 2022 Missouri State Senate election took place on November 8, 2022, as part of the biennial 2022 United States elections. 2022 Senate Election Predictions - Medium