The average accuracy rate for this year's Deep Ball Project was 48.1 percent, while the average efficiency score was 0.99. ex: Jimmy Garoppolo was 25 spots better for John (& 24.9% better accuracy). Play-action bombs can be most effective on first down, when both offenses and defenses are programmed to think about remaining "on schedule" with 6- to 8-yard gains . Without any further digressions, here is how the leagues quarterbacks graded on deep passes, passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield, in 2019. according to Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, all-important race for the AFCs top overall seed. Plays where the receiver catches the ball but can't control the ball as he hits the ground. Plays where the receiver catches the ball but has it knocked out of his hands. Heres a pass from 2010 where Brees tosses the ball 57 yards to his all-time favorite deep threat, Devery Henderson: The Saints have long thrived on the underneath passing game, but thats always been helped by the fact that New Orleans consistently pairs Brees with a speedster who can beat defenses over the top. Drew Brees School: Purdue Position: QB Heisman Voting : 4th in 1999, 3rd in 2000 Draft: 2nd round, 32nd overall of the 2001 NFL draft by the San Diego Chargers 15 Drew Brees Overview Game Logs 2000 Career Splits 2000 Career Drew Brees NFL Stats On this page: Passing Rushing & Receiving Scoring Leaderboards, Awards, & Honors Full Site Menu His accuracy was sensational both under pressure and on passes into tight windows, and because he had a high number of accurate incompletions (tied with Cam Newton for the most in 19) with minimal interceptions and dropped picks, he had the highest efficiency score of any quarterback in 2017. Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREEYour All-Access Ticket to the Pro Football Reference Database. His overall accuracy wasn't spectacular, but it was still good. Drew Brees - Age, Stats & Records - Biography Clicking on player names below will bring you to a more expanded section with more stats over at the Deep Ball Project website. Winston was incredibly productive, but it always came at a cost, one that NFL teams have apparently decided is too much to live with for a while. More NFL Draft Takeaways. Manning: 266 Games, 65.3% completion, 71,940 yards, 539 TDs, 251 Ints, QB . The Saints QB may be the greatest statistical passer of all time, but at this point in his career, his deep passes leave something (OK, a lot) to be desired. Brown. The downside was that only Philip Rivers had more negative plays than Mayfield on these passes, as the 2017 Heisman Trophy winner ended the season with nine turnover-worthy plays and seven interceptions. I haven't actually thought much about it, but it makes sense on the surface so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt there. Steelers, Rams Set Offensive Line Continuity Records, XFL Week 7 Preview: St. Louis, Houston Scrap for Second, Most Overvalued Players in a 2023 Fantasy Football Draft, Rams Limp to the Front of 2022's DVOA Underachievers, XFL Week 6 Review: D.C. Criticized harshly for a weak arm, the 41-year-old almost never throws the ball deep anymore, instead tossing short passes to running back Alvin Kamara and various receivers not named Michael Thomas. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by ChrisS. Not surprising for a quarterback with as much Y.O.L.O. Drew Brees - 20 - 95 OVR NFL Playoffs | Muthead Mahomes had the second-best passer rating on deep targets but did enjoy a little luck in that only two of his five turnover-worthy plays actually ended up picked off. While Andy Dalton was a pedestrian deep passer, the Bengals will be hoping that Joe Burrow is entirely different. . As a matter of policy, Sports Reference only reports the results of games as played on the field. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Allen can get the ball as deep as he wants it pretty much any time he wants to, and though he dialed it back in Year 2, he still went deep at the sixth-highest rate in the league. looked back at the QBs career attempts to targets deeper than 35 yards downfield. After all the passes are tallied up, the final number of points is divided by the amount of downfield passes. Drew Brees played 287 games over his career. To try and keep this relevant to all 32 NFL teams, we dug into the past a little bit for numbers on certain quarterbacks while the rest are 2019 numbers only. In reply to Re: I do not want to be trollish or dismissive by Hoodie_Sleeves. Use promo code, C.J. It doesn't smell right, it doesn't match his profile, it's not reflected in his performance, and it's not corroborated by the fans. Does this tell us anything the respective DVOA splits don't already? Drew Brees Almost Never Throws Deep Anymore. Is That - FiveThirtyEight . Brissett was known for his poor deep passing in college. Turnovers Per Game. Thats quite a large sample size. Thats especially concerning given that he had some pretty legit receivers to play with. As you may have guessed from Jacoby Brissett's high accuracy percentage, his accuracy to all distances was just absurd. Saints' Michael Thomas seemingly trolled Drew Brees on Twitter during Drew Brees Career Stats | NFL.com Players Injuries Transactions Health & Safety NFL+ X NFL+ Draft Room Rhett Lewis is joined by Marc Ross, David Shaw and Cynthia Frelund to predict picks. Birth City: Austin. (The other 5 were Carr, Cutler, Wentz, Wilson & Big Ben). After Stills, New Orleans used a first-round pick on Brandin Cooks, who ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. No passer could match the 13 touchdowns Mahomes managed on deep targets they were two more than the next closest quarterback. Drew Brees of New Orleans Saints sets NFL mark for 400-yard - ESPN A highlight reel of only his best deep passes would be as good as that from any quarterback in the league, but he missed on more than he should have given his ability to make those passes. I never said the QB shouldn't throw the jump ball. He finished with an overall quarterback rating of 84.9. The best thing that can be said about Mitchell Trubiskys deep passing is that its no worse than his regular passing, and his PFF grade ranks around the same place in either scenario. Or 1257 yards for the first 60 attempts and 8.1 yards per attemp for the remaining 78. 18.8 yards/attemp. Gardner Minshew has one of the weaker arms in the league, so this is proof that exceptional deep passing is not about arm strength but rather accuracy, timing and anticipation. Wilson produced five more big-time throws (PFFs highest-graded throws that take into account ball location accuracy, etc.) Do you also question all Film Room pieces as they only have 3-5 gifs per subject? He led the NFL in completion percentage, had a 27-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and helped earn the Saints a 13-3 record (8-3 in Breess starts) and the top seed in the NFC. Allen needs to find the touch to go with that cannon because its frankly inexcusable that a player with his kind of arm talent is this bad at passing deep. Drew Brees had a passer rating of 97.1 with 5,366 yards, 37 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 18 games in the playoffs in his career. Please note that the rankings for clean pockets, pressure, play-action, off-balance, open windows, and tight windows DO NOT REFLECT ACCURACY FOR THIS CHART, just how frequently each quarterback was in each scenario. Ryan Tannehill of the Titans, for instance, doesnt go deep much more often than Brees, and he is also having a very good season. Drew Brees vs. Jameis Winston Stats | FantasyPros (This is where the "elite" jokes come in.). And yet, the Saints are defying all that this season, with Brees passing well and the New Orleans offense once again ranking among the top 10 in EPA, as it has every season since Brees arrived in 2006. Recent stars like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson don't grade out nearly as well as people think due to the fact that both had poor accuracy on deep passes, to all depths. From his Combine profile: "Struggles with deep ball accuracy completing just 23.1 percent on attempts of 21-plus yards. Lock completed only three of those 11 pass attempts for 96 yards and a score, but he also had one picked off. See our list of forfeits and vacated games for more details. One of the areas the Cowboys improved passing attack manifested itself last season was in Dak Prescotts deep passing performance. If the pass was delivered while under pressure AND in a tight window, two bonus points are rewarded. Join our linker program. Justin Herbert (66.9%), (Matt Ryan is proof that quarterbacks can throw interceptions that aren't on them.). Simply put, its difficult to build an effective offense around short throws that disproportionately target players coming out of the backfield. Watson had the third-highest rate of clean pockets, the 11th-highest rate of play-action, the 11th-lowest rate of tight windows, and the 10th-highest rate of open windows. He was in the middle of the pack in terms of accuracy on deep passes a season ago, but he had just two of his 55 shots intercepted and showed that he was more than capable of punishing defenses with these plays if they tried too hard to stop the run. Javascript is required for the selection of a player. Brees has proven throughout his career, and in the 2011 regular season, that he is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when it comes . Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. Drew Lock played 24 games over his career. This is consistent with research that shows passes to running backs as being less valuable than those directed to other positions. It appears to be a strong argument, unlike everything else you said. Which teams crushed the draft, and which came up short? I agree that the penalty seems overly harsh. Really enjoyed these numbers and the commentary. His adjusted yards for 22 completions is (674 + 4*20 - 1*45) = 709 yards. Birth date: January 15, 1979. Drew Lock took just 11 deep shots over the season, so this number comes with a significant sample size caveat, but it felt more worthwhile than analyzing Joe Flaccos struggles. Drew Brees Career Stats | NFL.com In comparison to previous years when he was a downfield passing master, Roethlisberger's decision-making was awful last year, constantly making questionable throws to the point where he looked like he was chucking the ball up regardless if the receiver was open or not. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. The crazy thing is that Julio Jones had 12 of those 18 accurate incompletions. Drew Brees | Biography, Stats, College, & Facts | Britannica Now that Ginn is gone, the Saints have Emmanuel Sanders, who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash and got open over the top in last years Super Bowl as a member of the 49ers. but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. Drew Brees Career Stats Against Atlanta | StatMuse Kyler a Trade Chip? Tom Brady has never been the leagues best deep passer, but like everything else in New England, his deep passing suffered from the lack of quality receivers in 2019. While this is a surprise considering how bad the 49ers offensive line was last year, Kyle Shanahan's creative use of play-action and misdirection kept defenses guessing and made the pass protection look much better than it had any right to be. The "points" system here seems completely arbitrary. Learning How to Successfully Predict the Top NFL Prospects. On 84 attempts. On the 37 deep attempts after he got in the lineup, he didnt have a single turnover-worthy play or interception, even if his numbers became a little inflated by work done after the catch by the likes of A.J. Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. Matthew Stafford has the totals but lacks in accuracy. There were complaints about receivers not getting open, and about calling long developing plays with a terrible o-line, but not about Brissett's arm strength or accuracy. The 2017-18 edition includes much more than previous editions, but the most significant stat is Efficiency Score. ESPN Enterprises, Inc. All rights reserved. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media. Roethlisberger was an excellent deep passer of the football that year, and that was contrasted starkly with the combination of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who combined to replace him in 2019. Every offseason, I independently chart quarterbacks on what I like to call the Deep Ball Project. That's six points already. 1: 55.6: 15: 27: 221: 8.2: NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. I dont get it. Carson Wentz had the highest percentage of open-window passes to throw to (51.8 percent), yet he was third-to-last in accuracy to those areas (48.8 percent). Instead of throwing to one of them, though, he pump-fakes twice and settles on a dump-off pass for a loss of 2 yards. Surprises like Matt Ryan and DeShone Kizer are at the top. However, Rivers did also suffer from the second-most drops in the league, and accounting for those drops jumps his completion rate up five places on its own. College Football at Sports-Reference.com Blog and Articles. Drew Brees NFL Stats & News - rotowire.com He had just 48 deep attempts last season, which was one of the lower deep shot rates (9.4%) in the league. There are 2-3 gif examples for every QB at his full website, including each QB's best downfield throw in his opinion: https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/, In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by Toner. Russell Wilson was solid, but not nearly as efficient as in previous seasons. View a side-by-side comparison of Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. Brissett ranked 30th in completion percentage among qualified starters, or whatever Pro Football Reference deems "qualified," ahead of only CJ Beathard and DeShone Kizer. 3fg%. You can find the link to the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project here. Plays where the receiver stops or runs the wrong route. What's the point of that? While Breess trademark is clearly his historically great accuracy, he used to keep defenses honest by throwing a respectable portion of his passes downfield. Its not like he just presented his results, he showed his methodology on how he got there. Hed go on to lead the league in deep throw passing yards four more times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012), completions on deep throws four times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012) and touchdowns on deep throws seven times, including six straight years from 2008 to 2013. But Smith was mediocre in 2014 and thats more often been the case for the QBs who rank highly on both lists above. His completion rate was good, but six turnover-worthy plays hurt him overall, with five of those plays resulting in an interception. *Numbers taken from the 2016-19 NFL seasons. *Ranking among Week 8 starters, according to our QB Elo ratings. Get complete game-by-game stats for quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. Jacoby Brissett's accuracy was below average to open windows, but he was easily the best tight-window passer downfield, with an incredible 65.9 percent of his passes to tight windows being accurate. The Eagles won, the Falcons and Patriots made some interesting decisions (for better or worse), and late-round quarterbacks are coming out of the woodwork. This year, that figure is down even further, sitting at just 4.9 yardsa yard and a half per throw lower than his league-worst number from last year. Oops. Panama Jacksons True-ish Black Stories and Talking Freaknik, Im Not Gon Let You Play in My Damn Face. Jeff Legwold explains why the Broncos picked up Jerry Jeudy's rookie option. The league has known that for as far back as anybody can remember, and in todays game, the most reliable way of producing them is by throwing the ball deep. (I'm guessing no, otherwise Kinsley would have mentioned it.) Obviously different definitions of accurate could result in differing accurate-pass totals (John's total-sample Acc% was 4.9% more), but looking at QBs who didn't play in the playoffs (I wasn't sure if those were included here), this study had over 100 less attempts than Cian's. By QBR, Brees is doing better this year than in 2019 another very short-passing season by historical standards despite throwing deep even less (and despite not having Thomas, who set the all-time NFL record for receptions in a season last year). . Only three quarterbacks lost more completions and only three quarterbacks lost more yards. (These can be subjective or hard to dissect from miscommunications at first glance.). Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. NFL Passing (13). These subjective to objective metrics never seem very accurate to me. Highest total QBR in a season among passers with fewer than 7.0 air yards per attempt and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at 20+ air yards, 2006-2020. I just said you should give credit to the WR for allowing the QB to make an easier read and throw because when that WR gets hurt or leaves in free agency, that ability goes with him. Ranking all 32 NFL quarterbacks by deep passing performance: Dak - PFF Few players throw a better deep ball than Drew Brees when hes at his best, but as he ages, his effectiveness and frequency of deep passing has declined. Burrow had just two turnover-worthy plays on 83 deep shots, and though his arm is far from the strongest in his draft class (let alone in the entire NFL), he has the other skills to still be an effective deep passer. The quality of Sammy Watkins, Todd Gurley, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, and Gerald Everett meant that he was constantly throwing to open receivers as well. The narrative surrounding Daniel Jones was so concentrated on his high mistake rate that I didnt realize quite how bad his deep passing numbers were. His dominance came in short bursts and prolonged excellence: He holds the record for most touchdown passes in a game and in a career. Deshaun Watson (67.0%), 5. In 59 games, he threw for a total of 12,348 yards, 80 touchdowns and 53 interceptions. Dialing back his aggressiveness actually seemed to help his efficiency, though his PFF grade doesnt match the output, thanks in large part to DeVante Parker Mossing players like Stephon Gilmore down the stretch. Only Jimmy Garoppolo who benefits hugely from the scheme in San Francisco when it comes to deep shots had a higher adjusted completion rate on deep passes than Deshaun Watson last season. On the other end, Andy Dalton ranked 18 spots better for Cian (7.2% better). Only four quarterbacks had more big-time throws on deep shots than Mayfields 23, but those plays resulted in just seven touchdowns. Drew Brees, (born January 15, 1979, Dallas, Texas, U.S.), American gridiron football quarterback who was one of the most prolific passers in National Football League (NFL) history and set numerous single-season and career passing records, including the all-time marks for pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Now Hell Face LeBron and the Lakers. Although if you give the QB credit for throwing up jump balls to a very good receiver, you're essentially crediting the QB for having a good receiver when the whole point is trying to isolate the QB from his surroundings. His accuracy into open windows was horrible and he took poor care of the ball downfield, getting lucky on passes that should have been picked off. We must say a farewell to armsor, at least one arm. He had zero inaccurate completions, and his accuracy was extremely successful against pressure and into tight windows. How many games does Drew Lock play? Ryan Fitzpatrick might be the only quarterback in the league who can rival Jameis Winston for Y.O.L.O. Buccaneers: Making Drew Brees throw the deep ball is the path to victory Drew Lock is 6-4 (193 cm) tall. Pro Football Focus has tracked quarterbacks deep passes (defined as passes thrown to targets more than 20 yards downfield) since 2006. Below are Drew Brees's stats with the Chargers from 2001-2005: *2004 was the season Brees was selected to the Pro Bowl and won Comeback Player of the Year The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history. Keenum was #1 in DYAR. Even within the subset of deep passes, it would appear that Brissett is throwing a high number of deep balls that are even less likely to be completed than average. (Its a funny joke to everybody not routinely giving up first downs to Michael Thomas on slant routes.) Drew Brees weighed 209 lbs (94 kg) when playing. If you have a receiver that wins the jump-ball regularly, then the QB SHOULD throw jump balls to him, he's an idiot if he doesn't. The data, which are the film analyses themselves, are reduced to a number and therefore indisputable. 2009 Bert Bell Award (Player of the Year), Frequently Asked Questions about the NFL and Football, Pro-Football-Reference.com Blog and Articles, Subscribe to Stathead Football: Get your first month FREE. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. @Neil_Paine, NFL (976 posts) There is an entire five-minute video of Breess 70-yard touchdown passes, many of which are bombs thrown over the top. He is the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history. (Ed. But you can't isolate a QB from his surroundings. Trubisky completed just 34.4% of his deep shots for only 10.4 yards per attempt, and thats with Allen Robinson II winning jump balls at a high rate. Stafford passed for six deep touchdowns but had 16 big-time throws, and he perhaps deserved a little more when it came to putting points on the board from his passes. BackCAST 2023: Is Zach Charbonnet Overrated? Drew Brees (13) Although Next Gen Stats estimates that Brees and Garoppolo have made the easiest throws of any QB this season each has an expected completion percentage of about 71 percent based on the depth (and other characteristics) of their throws Brees has somehow managed to exceed that expectation, completing his passes at a rate 1.9 percentage points higher than wed expect of an average QB with the same set of throws. Will the Ravens Be Contending for the AFC Crown? Trevor Siemian trailed him with the second-highest rate, which is not surprising considering how poor the Denver Broncos' offensive line is. Rodgers may be a declining version of the player we saw some years back, but he is still capable of things few others are. Do you have a blog? Again, rankings out of 35 are in parentheses. the greatest statistical quarterback in NFL history, NFL Power Rankings: The War of Attrition Leaves Some Teams Scrambling. ", http://presnapreads.com/2018/03/25/quarterback-tiers-and-rankings-based-exclusively-on-the-2017-season/. Drew Brees Stats, News, Bio | ESPN This is not to say that Breess career is over, or that the Saints are doomed in 2020. Here are five questions that could determine that series outcome. The problem is that you can't even come close to evaluating the strength of the study with 2-3 gifs per QB. I'm really not seeing how anything useful can come from this. Breess arm carried this team for so long; now its time for the aging great to get a boost. The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. Drew Brees, , - Career Stats - NBA - CBSSports.com New Orleans Saints (52) The pass is intercepted and the quarterback is at fault. On the flip side, nobody has ever had to convince Matthew Stafford to throw deep when the opportunity presents itself, and even in an injury-shortened season saw him attempt eight more deep passes than Carr did all season long. Going back to 2006, the earliest season for which ESPN has data on air yards, only one QB threw a shorter average pass than Breess 5.80 mark this year: Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2014, whose average pass traveled just 5.58 yards through the air. How each team ranks through Week 7 of the 2020 season, according to our quarterback-adjusted predictions. Murray had just two turnover-worthy plays on 62 deep attempts a season ago. Neil Paine was the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. The Broncos on Monday picked up wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year rookie option. PoY To be fair, these examples happened with QBs with either small sample sizes (where a few more/less accurate passes would really shift the %), or a big difference in attempts. The Giants will be hoping that having his receiving corps healthy and together will help in Year 2. Drew Lock weighs 228 lbs (103 kg). 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Name: Drew Brees. Tom Brady had 1889 adjusted yards. 3rd in 2000, Draft: 2nd round, 32nd overall of the 2001 NFL draft by the San Diego Chargers, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 6:49AM. And yet, New Orleans has started the season with at least four wins in its first six games for a fourth consecutive year, and Brees is seventh in the NFL in Total QBR.1 Brees has been trending in this direction for a while, but he is now pushing the absolute limits of how much a quarterback can accomplish without having the arm to back it up. All rights reserved. Heading into the 2019 season, we thought Carson Wentz might have the best receiving corps in the league to throw to. Drew Brees Career Playoff Stats | StatMuse Alex Smith's efficiency score was sixth. Drew Brees has not been elected into the Hall of Fame. From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? Saints' Michael Thomas seemingly trolled Drew Brees on Twitter during NFC Championship Game Thomas' tweets infer that Brees not being able to throw the deep ball hurt the Saints By. But the statistical evidence that Brees is either unwilling or unable to throw the ball deep is overwhelming. Yes, that is Jacoby Brissett on the top. If that doesnt put into context how we evaluate quarterbacks at draft time, nothing will. If a QB is more selective in picking their spots to go deep, they'll get their deep throw highlights without the accompanying misses on lower percentage deep throws. Drew Brees Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com Drew Brees Drew Christopher Brees Position: QB Throws: Right 6-0 , 209lb (183cm, 94kg) Born: January 15 in Austin, TX (Age: 44-060d) More bio, uniform, draft, salary info 13x Pro Bowl 1x All-Pro 1x SB Champ SB XLIV MVP 2004 AP Comeback Player 2x AP Off. However, over the past few seasons, he hasnt been as efficient with those deep shots and has never been aggressive with the frequency with which he goes deep. Legends of DVOA: Drew Brees' Bombers | Football Outsiders The aggressiveness of a QB could also affect this perception quite a bit. His arm strength has steadily declined in recent seasons, and last year, his passes traveled shorter distances than any other NFL quarterback, with an intended air yards per target of 6.4 yards. Good for 21 yards per deep ball attempt. We present them here for purely educational purposes. Despite his lack of arm strength and disinclination to throw any deeper than 20 yards downfield, Brees has added value through sheer accuracy and ability to read defenses.